What is the success rate of recovery in AA? That depends entirely on who you ask, and on exactly what you are measuring.
For example, there is documentation that proves “early AA” had a success rate of about 75 percent.
On the other hand, there are some people who claim that AA actually has a negative rate of recovery, and that people actually relapse in AA who might have recovered “spontaneously” through spontaneous remission of the disease.
Finally, there are a large number of estimates out there that put the success rate of recovery at around 3 to 5 percent.
But it is indeed a tricky thing to measure. For one, what exactly are we measuring? Complete abstinence for life? Alcoholics who successfully make it to one year sober? What exactly determines “success” when we are talking about success rates? This is the first half of the measuring problem.
The other half of the problem is that it is very difficult to obtain truly accurate results across a large sample. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is the anonymity that the program is based on. Add that to the shame and guilt associated with relapse, and you have the potential to seriously overestimate the success rate based on an anonymous survey.
What does AA themselves have to say? Here is a piece of an actual memo from the Alcoholics Anonymous GSO (General Services Office), based on an analysis of a survey period that ran for 12 years:
“After just one month in the Fellowship, 81% of the new members have already dropped out. After three months, 90% have left, and 95% have discontinued attendance inside one year.” (Kolenda, 2003, Golden Text Publishing Company).
Of course, this doesn’t really tell the whole story, as many people will leave after AA after being first introduced to it, and then later return once they have truly been beaten by their alcoholism. Most people who are a success story in AA tell of how they struggled–sometimes for years–going in and out of AA before they finally “got it.”
On both sides of this issue, people are very passionate
If you follow the 2 links at the beginning of this article, you’ll see that one is definitely pro-AA, and the other is vehemently anti-AA. One is claiming up to a 95% success rate, while the other is claiming AA is actually detrimental and has a negative success rate (lower than spontaneous remission). And you’ll also notice that both people are very passionate and firm believers in the stance they are taking. Why such a discrepancy here?
I believe the reason is that AA is effective for some, but it is clearly not for everyone. It is not a one-size-fits-all program. There are plenty of people who have achieved success and meaningful sobriety in AA. There are also those who have honestly gave it there best shot, only to eventually relapse and die. This is unfortunate, and it begs the question: “What are the alternatives?”
Unfortunately, there aren’t a whole lot. Yes, there are a few out there, but they are spread few and far between, and there are many disadvantages with all of them. While many of the alternatives to AA claim to have superior success rates, their method of measurement suffers from the same flaws as AA, and their is very little widespread support in these programs.
If you are on the fence about going to AA, here is what I suggest you do: Ignore the success rates you hear about and give it a chance. Do this knowing that AA is the single biggest support system of recovery in the world. The program may not be perfect, but it’s the best our planet has. The alternatives might talk a big game, but they don’t have meetings in every city in the world. AA does. You can find support just about anywhere. And it’s technically free to boot.
Here’s another suggestion: find someone in AA who has multiple years of sobriety and ask them what the success rate is for AA. They will likely tell you that they don’t care. It works for them.
Action items – What does all this mean for you?
1) Give AA a chance, because the meetings are everywhere and therefore the level of support is mind-boggling.
2) Don’t get stuck in thinking there is only one path to recovery – that is NOT TRUE. There are many paths.
3) Stay open. Regardless of what you choose, implement the spiritual principles into your life. Practice gratitude.
Recommended Reading
- Overcoming Addiction
- How to Get a 70 Percent Success Rate when Treating Addiction
- 5 Ways to Supercharge Your Recovery, Avoid Relapse, and Dominate Your Addiction Over the Holiday Season
- 10 Ways to Embrace Creative Recovery and Take Your Sobriety to the Next Level
- Warning: Taking Massive Action in Drug Addiction Recovery Could Result in Creating an Awesome Life that You are Genuinely Grateful For
- Holistic Addiction Treatment Center
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Maybe another interesting aspect of recovery is the number alcoholics who even come into AA or seek help elsewhere for their alcoholism. Some statistics are needed, but the best I can do is to make a guess.
There are about 325 million people in the United State and I estimate at least 200 million people drink. It is estimated is that 10% of the people who drink will become alcoholics. That’s 20 million alcoholics.
The membership of AA in the USA 1.25 million, which means that slightly over 5% of the alcoholics in the USA are in AA. That’s not a recovery rate. It means there are a lot of people with drinking problems who are not going to AA. Where are they going?
Some may be get help from other programs of recovery such as Secular Organization for Sobriety (SOS), which has almost 200,000 members or Rational Recovery (RR), which has about 50,000 members.
The total membership of AA, SOS and RR in the USA is under 2 million members. There are about 18 million alcoholics who are not in (AA, SOS or RR)recovery. You said about 5% may recover or stop drinking on their own. That leaves 17 million drunks out there.
Are we missing that many people who may want or need help? It has often been said, “AA is for those people who want it, not those that need it.” Or another saying, “If you want to drink, thats your business; if you want to quit, it’s our business,” which means we’ll try help you get and stay sober.
Almost nobody wants to quit before they come to AA. Some don’t want to quit drinking and others are afraid they can’t stop. I don’t know what we can do to help people stop drinking other than to welcome them into whatever program fits them best. I can only speak for myself when I say, “I’ve been drunk and I’ve been sober, and sober is better, way better!”
Oops, I fouled up some numbers in my estimate.
1.25 million out of 20 million or 6.25% of all alcoholics in the USA stay sober in AA.
Let’s say AA has 1.25 million members, SOS has 200,000 members and RR has 50,000 members for a total of 1.5 million out of 20 million alcoholics or 7.50% stay sober in AA, SOS and RR together.
If 5% get sober on their own like you say,and sounds high, that amounts to 1 million alcoholics.
Does on their own mean they went to treatment or maybe started in AA, but no longer attend AA? There are a lot of alcoholics who come to AA and leave. Maybe some alcoholics just quit when they realize drinking is messing up their lives.
Anyway that amounts to 5.0% (on own) and 7.5% (AA, SOS, and RR)for a total of 12.5% of the 20 million alcoholics in the USA. 12.5% of 20 million comes to 2.5 million recovering or sober alcoholics.
That leave 87.5% of the 20 million alcoholics or 17.5 million alcoholics who are still drinking in the USA.
How can we help these people? In AA, we cannot help anyone unless they want to stop drinking and that may true for all methods of recovery or stopping drinking.
However, practicing alcoholics are responsible for car wrecks, DUI’s, domestic violence, crimes and numerous other offenses. Putting drunks in jail may not be an answer; sometimes it forces alcoholics to face their problems. Sometimes jail makes it worse.
Alcoholism is a major problem and we have barely scatched the surface in recovery or stopping drinking. I hope this helps to put some numbers on the disease.
It’s funny. All this talk about the success rate off AA. How about AA bucking up to the truth that Bill W. worked with Dr. Hoffer and did vitamin therapy to get over his addiction. AA squashed it and still is to this day. That’s why I don’t want to sit around a table and talk about my life that at a group that is and has been put on by liars, manipulators and hypocrites.
I’m so inside my head now because of AA. I feel crazy!
i’m a free thinker. this does not go over very well with anyone really. when i read the aa approved (that’s scary in and of itself)book, pass it on, i read where bill wilson was hanging out with the intellectual crowd of the 60′s. bill took lsd in the name of it possibly helping out alcoholism. he used and got lois to take it too. so much for her codependant recovery and his sobriety. bill never quit smoking either and died a horrible death as a result. my favorite aa saying in how it works is that “no one among us has maintained anything like perfect adherance to these principles”. NO ONE!!! i was told when i started going to meetings that there are no stupid topics or questions. i got into therapy to deal with my dysfunctional family issues and depression. when i would bring up my family stuff in aa/na meetings i was told a few times that “we don’t talk about that here”. that’s when i saw one of aa’d big red flags. i remember being at a meeting one night when a mob figure took a 5th step about how many people he had murdered in a big meeting. BIG RED FLAG!!! i have come to believe that my bipolar/panic/anxiety issues have been the culprit all along. i drugged myself with alcohol, coke and prescription medication to deal with it. the god squads in the rooms didn’t want to here about it. i spiraled into a deep dark depression that landed me in the hospital for three weeks about 5 years ago.this happened to me with over twenty years stone cold sober and working a “good program”.I had a complete nervous breakdown ,stone cold sober, mind you. my experience is that the “a drug is a drug is a drug” is not “thee truth”. because of my mental issues i had to take mood and mind altering prescription drugs just to find anything close to focus. my sponser was the one who recommended i take them. i fought him tooth and nail on the subject. i was scared to take them because the program had instilled in me that i would surely abuse such drugs. it never happened. i never took more than i should and never took them to get high. thus proving that there are no absolutes and i started staying away from those nazi type recovering folks. my sponser always told me “if someone says they have the way, run the other way”. so i did just that and i’m here to talk about it. i have aa/na friends who have comitted suicide because some self appointed recovery gurus told them to just pray away mental illness without the use of antidepressants. this is where aa/na people can be very dangerous, VERY DANGEROUS!!! so my friends killed themselves because of mental issues, unrelenting mental issues. maybe jeff and mitch would still be alive had they got stabilized with medication and stopped listening to the uninformed dangerous types spewing “work the steps or die mother fucker” poison. i started using marijuana about a year after i got out of the hospital. it is a good drug. i have always thought that. so far so good. god’s own earthy antidepressant. i am no saint. neither are any of you.
For me, the statistical data for AA is not terribly relevant. I am sober now for six weeks, and I started AA along with outpatient treatment because I will do anything possible to survive alcoholism. I want my life back, and until there is a 100% proven cure, I will try, what most agree, is the only tested method for recovery. One success among 100 may be a low success rate, unless you are that one. It ain’t perfect, but for now, I believe it is the best we have.
I’ve commented here before, but I return because of the moderate nature of the comments. Several sites today are either those manned by self-proclaimed Christian writers who seem to pan A.A. as a cult, as a dangerous place for believers to be, and as a Society founded by spiritualists. No documentation, no accurate history, and no understanding of society today accompanies these critics. On the other hand, more and more sites and forums are filled with disgruntled AAs who don’t appear to believe in God, or who failed in A.A., or who have never taken the time to study the origins, history, founding, original program, and successes of the early A.A. Christian fellowship. I came into A.A. almost 25 years ago and have had continuous sobriety from that date until this. I had no preconceived ideas about A.A. I simply hurt, was miserable, was frightened, and was in a mountain of trouble. I dived into A.A. I later researched and learned its history and changes. But the most important Big Book phrase was: “Rarely have we seen a person fail who has thoroughly followed our path.” My belief was and is that if a newcomer entered with intent to learn and follow the fellowship program, sought God’s help, and then helped others to get well, he would succeed. And I believe he will!
What these studies fail to include is the difference in who is attending; now versus the “old AA”.
There are a great many court ordered members, they DONT want to be there and are gone as soon as their paperwork is over, there are also a much larger group of younger AA’s since then, a group I would hazard to say have much less of a chance of sobriety and then there’s the cross addictions or even AA members that only identify as “Addicts ( drug). Studies show hard-core drug users have much less chance of sobriety than AA’s
@ Everyone – most studies show no difference whatsoever between success rates of those who are court mandated vs. those who are self motivated. Counter-intuitive, yes. But I see it in rehab where I work too….
I have read through many of the posts here. I ran into the “big book” about 30 years ago while travelling. I read it from cover to cover. I was moved by the humility of the men responsible for its writing. What I observed was that when a man was desperate for freedom from slavery to alcohol, who stood with arms outstretched to heaven and cried out to the Living God (of the Bible.. since the man was a Christian) for deliverance, he was delivered. He had tried over and over to stop drinking and found he could not.
He was miraculously delivered by The Living God. The ONLY living God. The God of the Bible.
Since then, AA has become a religion of sorts, which while giving a tip of the hat to “God as you perceive him to be”; does not pay homage to The Living God, the Father of Jesus Christ, the giver of the Holy Spirit. As a matter of FACT, one does not need to be a believer in Jesus Christ or the God of the Bible in order to be “set free” from Alcohol and Drug abuse. Perhaps without knowing it, AA has become a “house of many gods”, which is clearly contrary to the teaching of the Bible. In fact, “sobriety” has become an idol in the modern day AA. I know that the doctrine teaches that as you pursue sobriety, by practicing the 12 steps and “working” them diligently, you will have a spiritual awakening which will lead to sobriety. But you must continue to live under the notion that “once and addict, always an addict” and that one is always in “recovery”.
My experience has taught me that if an abuser attends AA meetings he is more likely to run into a supplier of drugs than he/she would if they just stayed home and abstained. According to their own statistics, “most people who are in AA never get sober”. This is truly lamentable. The God of the Bible never rejects anyone who wants to be healed or delivered.
“Whosoever calls upon the name of the Lord SHALL be delivered”. These are the words of the Bible.
In its beginnings (before it was corrupted by well meaning men and women who elevated sobriety above a true knowledge of God, Jesus and the Holy Spirit BY EXPERIENCE) AA was successful. It was successful BECAUSE it pointed people who were in need of deliverance from bondage to alcohol and drugs to the PERSON of Jesus Christ, The God of the Bible, and the Holy Spirit GIVEN to those who wanted to become children of God, and walk in freedom from Sin.
Sadly, now, there is a banner over the doors of most AA meeting places which reads, “ICHABOD”. God has departed because HE is no longer worshiped as God.
Want a greater success rate? Submit to God and to His Word.
I appreciate your personal views, but this is no place for proselytizing. Narrowly defined views like yours will keep so many alcoholics away from AA because they think it is a christian church related organization. I would never have gone to AA if I thought I would get fundamentalist rhetoric from Christianity or any other group. The bottom line is this: for most of us, we will NOT succeed in sobriety if we don’t develop our spirituality. It need not be Christian. You have done a disservice for Christians everywhere with your post – it seems paranoid, overbearing and dogmatic.
@ Annie – Hmmmm….many Christians recover through religion rather than going to AA at all. Plus, I know of at least 2 people who have left AA completely and now attend a Christian church INSTEAD. So I am not sure what the problem is here?
The only disservice I think I have done is not to shake people up enough so that they will stop depending on AA for their sobriety. Using the meetings as a crutch is very common (based on what I observed over the years) and it can eventually lead to relapse.
I just want folks to seek real growth outside of dogmatic programs…to me, that is where the “real recovery” happens. Recovery IS personal growth. Programs, religions, steps–they all just point to the solution, but none of them ARE the solution. Just my 2 cents.
#55 is funniest…” I am so inside my own head now because of AA. I feel crazy!” This one comment made all the posts worth reading. I know personally the hell of getting sober and living drunk. Be true to self. Take time to find what works. Anyone reading any of this has some kind of problem. I pray that you all find your answers. Don’t take yourself too seriously…rule #62.
You can’t say that you can’t get reliable data from a large group. That’s exactly where you get it if the group is identified by certain traits that you are looking to analyze. Be careful what you say and how you are saying it.
I heard on another site that recovery rates for alcoholics is very low.And that most die.It does not have to be that way.I have known people who recover.I believe that if one is willing and ready they can get the help in order to recover.AA has helped many people.But people must want help.And if AA wishes to return to it’s high recovery rates of 1940′s it must get get back to Basics,as it’s highly successful meeting logo says.
Just a comment or two. First, early A.A. was a Christian Fellowship and was entirely different from the A.A. of today. The early fellowship had a documented 75% success rate among those who really tried. The stats today are unimportant to me, albeit proving lack of success. But is the lack of success due to poor statistics. To poor relationship with God and with Jesus Christ. To court ordered and treatment center-oriented bussing. To the growing idolatry and secularism there and in society? To insistent pounding against A.A. by the psychoheretics, the Orange site, the atheists, and the anti-A.A. folks. I don’t know. But I just attained 25 years of continuous sobriety in A.A. today. I dived into A.A. I turned to God for help. And I helped many others do the same. Success today with God’s help is as available today in A.A. as it was when the early AAs insisted on utiizing it.
I am always sadly amused when I see that those who gave up on their AA program are the first to say AA doesn’t work!
To me, that very blaming behavior IS ‘alcoholism’ with all it’s attendant self-pity, basic dishonesty, and evasion of responsibility.
All AA told me was that it would work for me to the exact degree that I applied myself; that we are only sober today; no one but me can make me take a drink; and that my very life depends upon avoiding resentment and also ‘trying strenuously to help the next alcoholic who comes along’.
Dan
Sober 24 yrs, 6 months
If a Dr prescribes you a life saving medicine and you decide not to take it and subsequently die.
Has that Drs treatment failed?
AA works 100% for those that “take the medicine” ie follow the program.
I beg to differ. There are no 100% effective treatments for addiction. But the best numbers we have indicate that 60 to 70% of those who complete all 12 steps of the program are sober and have good relationships after 10 years. In contrast, 90 to 95% of those who quit the program before completion are still struggling with addiction, institutionalized, or dead within 10 years. It’s not perfect. I wish it was. But it’s the best hope most addicts have. I strongly urge anyone who has a friend or family member struggling with addiction, to get them to a meeting and do what you can to keep them in the program to completion. Look at it as saving their life, since odds are that’s just what you’ll be doing.
@ Dan – I left AA and found a path that works for me. Staying in AA was leading to complacency. I am sure this works differently for different people.
Saying that AA works for 100% of the people who follow it is an error in logic. Of course it works for 100% if it is abstinence based. But this is entirely meaningless.
I can design a new program where you “don’t drink or take drugs no matter what and go to church twice a week for support.” Anyone who follows that 100% will be successful too. It’s not the church, it’s the implied abstinence.
People who get sober using a certain method (such as AA, or the religious route) tend to believe that they way that THEY got sober will work for anyone, if they would just give it a chance.
Well, duh. ANY Of these methods will work, so long as they are abstinence based. There is no magic in the 12 steps, or in a religious program of recovery, or in group therapy, and so on.
Rehabilitation works when you work it. It won’t if you don’t. Sound familiar? That applies to AA, sure. But it also applies to ANY OTHER recovery solution you can imagine.
I agree that AA works for some,but not for everyone.Different strokes for different folks.
After reading most of the comments posted here I am compelled to say a few words. As an
alcoholic with 15 years of continuous sobriety through the halls of AA, it is my hope that anyone
looking for help, who may be in the throes of alcoholic addiction, find themselves at a meeting
of alcoholics anonymous. AA literally saved my life. Without the love and kindness of fellow aa’s my life would not be as amazing as it is today. I’ve not met a finer, more sincere, honest bunch of people anywhere else than I’ve seen in the halls of AA. So for those writing in to complain, that AA is a cult, religious program etc, do some research. I’m the last person who would ever join a religious organization! I practice meditation and yoga on a daily basis and consider myself a buddhist. AA is very simply a group of people who have gotten sober, cleaned house and help others! So if you have a problem with alcohol get to an AA meeting and start living instead of just getting by!!! Peace:)
i must reply to some of the comments being raised i am a member of aa and am sober 6months. it is a spiritual program individual to each member of a power greater than oneself. each member has his or her own belief religious or otherwise to help him or her cope with the addiction. the only requirement of aa is the desire to stop drinking ……………. it is each persons journey in dealing with the addiction the comment being made that aa is a cult forming organization in my opinion is incorrect. people are there with a goal … to stay sober and in turn help others who are trying to maintain their soberity
AA is great to build a foundation when you have destroyed your own.And there are some realy cool catz that will help you.Ive been sober now for 5 1/2 yrs and it took me 11 yrs to get there.I dont miss the dark days of alcohol haze at all and AA helped .But today I do see how some groups are very “clicky” and cult like .Make no doubt you join AA.you join a fellowship. No one calls it what it is, but it is the “Church of Bill W” ! The Big Book is The Bible. Make know doubt that every time you go to a meeting you are going to a religious service.Not sprituial.Thats cool ,I love GOD, but I have a disease. I talk to GOD all the time.Meetings wont keep me sober.Especialy when they are no longer about sobriety .Sadly AA is more of a social gathering place than a helping place today.
See following article on recovery rates: http://aacultwatch.co.uk/Documents/recout01%20(updated).pdf
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