What is the success rate of recovery in AA? That depends entirely on who you ask, and on exactly what you are measuring.
For example, there is documentation that proves “early AA” had a success rate of about 75 percent.
On the other hand, there are some people who claim that AA actually has a negative rate of recovery, and that people actually relapse in AA who might have recovered “spontaneously” through spontaneous remission of the disease.
Finally, there are a large number of estimates out there that put the success rate of recovery at around 3 to 5 percent.
But it is indeed a tricky thing to measure. For one, what exactly are we measuring? Complete abstinence for life? Alcoholics who successfully make it to one year sober? What exactly determines “success” when we are talking about success rates? This is the first half of the measuring problem.
The other half of the problem is that it is very difficult to obtain truly accurate results across a large sample. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is the anonymity that the program is based on. Add that to the shame and guilt associated with relapse, and you have the potential to seriously overestimate the success rate based on an anonymous survey.
What does AA themselves have to say? Here is a piece of an actual memo from the Alcoholics Anonymous GSO (General Services Office), based on an analysis of a survey period that ran for 12 years:
“After just one month in the Fellowship, 81% of the new members have already dropped out. After three months, 90% have left, and 95% have discontinued attendance inside one year.” (Kolenda, 2003, Golden Text Publishing Company).
Of course, this doesn’t really tell the whole story, as many people will leave after AA after being first introduced to it, and then later return once they have truly been beaten by their alcoholism. Most people who are a success story in AA tell of how they struggled–sometimes for years–going in and out of AA before they finally “got it.”
On both sides of this issue, people are very passionate
If you follow the 2 links at the beginning of this article, you’ll see that one is definitely pro-AA, and the other is vehemently anti-AA. One is claiming up to a 95% success rate, while the other is claiming AA is actually detrimental and has a negative success rate (lower than spontaneous remission). And you’ll also notice that both people are very passionate and firm believers in the stance they are taking. Why such a discrepancy here?
I believe the reason is that AA is effective for some, but it is clearly not for everyone. It is not a one-size-fits-all program. There are plenty of people who have achieved success and meaningful sobriety in AA. There are also those who have honestly gave it there best shot, only to eventually relapse and die. This is unfortunate, and it begs the question: “What are the alternatives?”
Unfortunately, there aren’t a whole lot. Yes, there are a few out there, but they are spread few and far between, and there are many disadvantages with all of them. While many of the alternatives to AA claim to have superior success rates, their method of measurement suffers from the same flaws as AA, and their is very little widespread support in these programs.
If you are on the fence about going to AA, here is what I suggest you do: Ignore the success rates you hear about and give it a chance. Do this knowing that AA is the single biggest support system of recovery in the world. The program may not be perfect, but it’s the best our planet has. The alternatives might talk a big game, but they don’t have meetings in every city in the world. AA does. You can find support just about anywhere. And it’s technically free to boot.
Here’s another suggestion: find someone in AA who has multiple years of sobriety and ask them what the success rate is for AA. They will likely tell you that they don’t care. It works for them.
Action items – What does all this mean for you?
1) Give AA a chance, because the meetings are everywhere and therefore the level of support is mind-boggling.
2) Don’t get stuck in thinking there is only one path to recovery – that is NOT TRUE. There are many paths.
3) Stay open. Regardless of what you choose, implement the spiritual principles into your life. Practice gratitude.
Recommended Reading
- Overcoming Addiction
- How to Get a 70 Percent Success Rate when Treating Addiction
- 5 Ways to Supercharge Your Recovery, Avoid Relapse, and Dominate Your Addiction Over the Holiday Season
- 10 Ways to Embrace Creative Recovery and Take Your Sobriety to the Next Level
- Holistic Addiction Treatment Center
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Excellant article with many good and valid points, Especially the thought that the paths are many. I went to AA for many years and supplemented this with a long term residential drug rehab program (www.stopaddiction.com). So the question would arise as to whether AA did or did not work for me. Perhaps by attending AA I did find enough workablity to get me butt to a rehab program when I realized I was in need of more intensive treatment. Just because I found lasting sobriety following my inpatient treatment is not reason to say AA had no effect.
Hi there Kayakotto
Interesting that both of our paths involved long term treatment and AA, but didn’t necessarily end up with us being entirely dependent on AA as our ultimate solution.
I’m definitely grateful for my experience in AA, and that it has led me to this point in my life. But some people confuse AA with being the path itself, when in fact it merely points to the path.
I still encourage newcomers to give it a chance, because there is so much support there. Anyway, thanks for sharing your comment Kayakotto!
The programs recovery rate is extremely higher than the fellowships recovery rate
Many are in-constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves so they seek
a label (sponsor) an outside menacing force outside the Big Book and get into personalities = another persons reality instead of being true to thy self.
A.A. does not ask this it begs you to be fearless from the very start many get fear imposed on them to get a sponsor and boy do they get it.
Thanks for your comment Joe.
Your statement about the “programs recovery rate is much higher than that of the fellowship,” that makes sense, and I would agree that such a statement points to the need to actually do some footwork and work on ourselves and take a deeper look inside (such as through the 12 steps).
But I would also caution people to look at that statement and see how it elevates “the program” to perfection. This is a logical error, in my opinion. You get into the problem of always thinking that the program is perfect, and if someone fails, then it is because they did not work the program perfectly. This is a very limiting way of thinking that can stunt people from growing, because it can limit them from seeking growth outside of the boundaries of the program.
Thanks so much for your comment, Joe, and good luck to you on your journey….
Thank you for including our reference to the documented 75% success rate in early A.A. among seemingly hopeless medically incurable real alcoholics who went to any length to establish their relationship and fellowship with God. A.A. has changed, and in many many ways. Statistics should be viewed in light of our history See Dick B., Real Twelve Step Fellowship History dickb.com/titles.shtml. The success rates today seem to be in the eye of the beholder. As one who has attended thousands of meetings, I can justifiably ask, where are those in flight. Most leave soon. Many go to Christian fellowships. Some tough it out. Others come and go and return. A hard crowd to measure. Contrast early A.A. where the original 40 kept rosters, knew each other by name and address, and kept track of sobriety dates, relapses, and the like. God Bless, Dick B.
Hi there Dick B.
I agree it is a very difficult thing to measure, and this is the source of much frustration in the treatment community.
I would encourage anyone reading to check out Dick B’s website, just click on his name in the comment above, it is very informative….lots of info there. Thanks for your comment, Dick!
I much prefer the comments on this site to the long diatribes against those of us in the trenches who can see who comes and who goes. A.A. is undergoing change. The program of today, as seen in the fellowship, is not the program of the 1930′s, as reported by Frank Amos and published in DR. BOB and the Good Oldtimers. The program of today does not insist on reliance on God; yet that was the first question posed by Dr. Bob to newcomers leaving the hospital. Those who criticize the accuracy of the early 40 members records give no evidence of having looked at the rosters, the collections in the Wilson House Griffith Library, the scrapbook on sale at GSO. I belong to the A.A. of today, and I’m really glad I do. I remember the A.A. of the 1930′s and have no difficulty asking God which way to go on any particular Step, Tradition, or Big Book suggestion. Neither did Bill and Bob. There weren’t any steps, traditions, or publishing efforts. God’s strength, guidance, and rescue were sufficient for them. God Bless, Dick
Alcoholism Cured – A.A.’s Early Position on God and Cure
Dick B.
© 2008 Anonymous. All rights reserved
Can alcoholism be cured by the power of God? And was it curable as early AAs viewed it?
Let’s see what the founders, their early team, and the A.A. pioneers had to say:
• Speaking of his first meeting with A.A.’s Bill W., Dr. Bob wrote:
This man was a man who had experienced many years of frightful drinking, who had had most all the drunkard’s experience known to man, but who had been cured by the very means I had been trying to employ, that is to say, the spiritual approach.
• A.A.’s biography of Bill W. reports of the work of Dr. Bob and Bill W. with Bill Dotson:
In late June [1935], Dr. Bob put in a call to Akron City Hospital. He explained to the nurse in the receiving ward that a man from New York had just found a cure for alcoholism.
• AA Number Three (Bill Dotson) remembered Bill W.’s own testimony to Dotson’s wife:
Henrietta [Dotson], the Lord has been so wonderful to me, curing me of this terrible disease that I just want to keep talking about it and telling people.
http://dickb.com/alcoholismcured.shtml
Yes, there is quite a bit of controversy with early AA and the whole history of how things started. It is too easy to talk about the good old days and how everyone used to stay sober back when they did things differently. When people start talking like that I believe they are falling into a trap. Not for themselves, because those types of people usually have a strong recovery, but they are frustrated in trying to carry the right message and how to go about helping the newcomer. They yearn for a simpler time when things were easier. This might very well be “the-grass-is-greener” type of thinking….not realistic at all.
I always appreciate your input, though, Dick, and I also have some level of hope for AA and their mission. But I think the creative theory of recovery is going to find it’s way out into the world eventually and people will start approaching addiction from a more holistic perspective. Thanks again for your comment.
In November, 2008, we will soon be posting on our main website and on other sites an extensive discussion of the important question: Is Alcoholics Anonymous effective today, together with studies of statistics. Just note, there is a marked difference between present-day A.A. and its frequent lack of focus on the power of God in seeking recovery, and the early A.A. Christian fellowship and its documented 75% to 93% success rate among those who really tried.
I just finished talking to my alcoholic 51 year old sister. She was calling to tell me she is being kicked out of her 8th residence in as many months. She hasn’t paid the landlord since moving in about 6 weeks ago. I was being called so she could tell me that our parents have basically abandoned her because they won’t bail er out again. They have bought her 4 cars in the past year and she has wrecked all 4 of them while drunk, one which may even have been a suicide attempt when she drove head on into a semi. The truck driver saw her and made a sharp turn to avoid the immenent head on. She left the scen, hid the car in the woods, and called the police to report it had been stolen. By the way, she drives on a provisional license which says she is to drive to and from work ONLY. This last crash was at 3 AM, and she was obviously not on her way to work. She has had 8 DUI arrests and 8 convictions. She has spent time in jail at both the county level and prison. She has also been arrested 7 other times for alcohol related incidents. Yet she says to this very moment that she does not have an alcohol problem, but that the police just hate her. Common “stnking thinking”, a term used in AA meetings and recovery centers all over the world. It has been suggested to her by every relative that she checks into a long term rehab, ut she doesn’t think she needs that because she enjoys being buzzed. So what if she has no home, no job (fired a week ago for drinking on the job), no car, or no possessions? At least she enjoys getting a buzz and apparently that is all that matters to her.
So she asks me what I think she should do and I suggest 30 day rehab and AA every day from noe on. She quote a suceess rate of AA being only a mere 3% so she akready knows it is a waste of time. So I look this article up to find what the actual rate od sucess is and see that this article makes her answer appear to be correct. That’s complete and udder nonsense. I agree that there is a huge drop out rate of people in AA, but, and this is a huge thing, of the people attending most AA meetings there is a huge number that are there because they have been forced into it by court or as a contigency to some other punishment. These are the people who are going to leave as soon as they have attended the number of meetings ordered by the court, and unfortunately the judges who give these orders are obviously ignorant to what AA evens is. They only or 10 or maybe 15 meetings. Most alcoholics could do that standng on their heads if they knew they could go right back to drinking after a couple weeks. Therein lies the reasoning behind such poor statistics.
I went to AA in 1986 trying to save a failing marriage. My wife was the alcoholic and I had been told that going to an AA meeting or two would give me an understanding of how a 12 step program worked, This was on a Tuesday, and I had just missed the new members Alanon meeting which only meets on Mondays. So I had to wait another 5 days until the next Alanon meeting. Anyway, from that very first meeting of AA I was hooked. It was as much of a dug to me as was any other. I couldn’t get enough of AA, Alanon, NA, or whatever other 12 step program I could find. I was going to 2 meetings a day, regardless of which Anonympous it was, even if I wasn’t part of the particular problem the meeting was trying to help. AA was like going to church and fellowshipping with people from all walks of life, and I was digging it. I was a non smoker willing to sit through a meeting in a room so thick with smoke that I could barely see who was speaking just to be around other people who wouldn’t judge or dislike me or anybody else. It felt great.
So 22 years have come and gone since that addic tion started. I quit going to meetings after 3 1/2 years and instead went to a holy roller church. It was the fellowshipping that I had been craving, and not so much the content of any meeting. I haven’t been drunk or high since 1986, and that is without the benefit of an AA meeting. The seeds were planted way back there in 1986 and they have been thriving within me ever since. I know what being sober is all about and I know what AA is all about. There will be no success in such a thing unless the person attending wants to be there. Nobody who is forced to go will stay very long. Nobody who has to have his card signed by the leaer of a meeting gives a damn about what the topic was in a meeting. Unless a person has gotten so low that there is no way but up, they will refuse to believe they have a problem. My sister reached that point today. Unfortunately she was drinking as we spoke, and when she had enough alcohol in her system to make that little switch in her brain switch on, the walls went up, the ears quit hearing, and she decided tht even though she had called me crying to ask what I thought she should do, I was the asshole who thought I knew everything. She is one of the failure statistics. She has been court ordered to attend AA 14 times. and after she got her cards signed enough times, she went right back to getting drunk and high. She is one of the numbers people use to determine that AA is a failure.
If you really want help with your alcohol problem, then AA is an excellent opportunity for you. You will hear from people who have been exactly where you have and have been able to turn it all around. ut these will be people who aren’t one of those statistics tis article talks about. These will be people who decided they had had enough of the being broke, poor, and homeless and stayed in the program until it worked. If that’s who you want to be, then look at this website, find your state or country, and get a phone number to find out how to get started. http://www.anonpress.org/phone/
I promise that if you are really ready to give up on the life at the bottom, then you will at least find a place to get started to your way up. I pray to God that my sister reads an article like this so she can see that there are people out there who love you enough to help you out.
Wow! I wish had spell checked before I hit submit. It’s an udder (OMG) er, utter disgrace.
Yeah I say the “udder” thing too, that was funny! Got a chuckle from me.
Yes I agree that the success rates are a bit skewed due to the court mandated attendance, but I still think the problem is a bit deeper than that. Many who willingly go to AA and want what they have there still relapse at a really high rate, but I do not necessarily have an alternate solution.
I believe that the peer support and networking offered by AA is critical to the newcomer and therefore I still recommend it. But I do see a great many people who have “got stuck” in the fellowship and the path they are on is very limited as far as growth goes. I am not against AA but I am cautioning people that there is huge growth to be had outside the boundaries of traditional AA.
The fellowship is valuable but at the same time it can become a dependency, as you pointed out Gary. But I thank you very much for your insightful comment and I am praying for your sister and others in her situation. I hope she can find a path to sobriety, either in AA or otherwise. God bless.
What I’m interested to know is how the AA success rates compare to NO support program at all. ie. Does AA leave you worse off than you started?
I can see that it might, with the whole admitting utter helplessness in the face of alcohol thing, but it’d be good to have some hard figures one way or the other.
Hard figures you will not find, they do not exist. Any figures that you do find must be taken with a grain of salt, because it is so difficult to get reliable data from such an anonymous playing field. Even those who respond to follow up surveys from treatment centers will often lie a bit just out of shame and guilt if they happened to have relapsed.
There are some who argue that 12 step programs are detrimental as a whole, because they say that the spontaneous rate of remission among alcoholics is actually better than if you have them all go to AA. My personal philosophy on this is that I don’t quite buy it…I think AA does more good than harm, but not buy a huge margin. There are so many who fail and so many more who stay stuck in relatively shallow sobriety.
My stance is that we can improve on AA and go beyond it in some way. The creative theory is my attempt to explain how I have done that in my own life.
I have attended Back to Basics now for a little over a year. Back to Basics teaches trust God, clean house, help others. Those that have attended more than 3 months at this point we have 100% success rate, however our statistics on those who come one time aren’t much if any better than AA as a whole. I think the key is; if you just attend AA meetings the result is a low rate of success on the other hand becoming a member of AA AND trusting God, cleaning house, and helping others will 75% of the time keep you sober. I don’t think that’s changed over the years! It has worked for me now 29 years.
@ Bill Webb – yes what you say makes perfect sense, those who put forth a tremendous effort are the ones who will get good results. I believe AA stated that at one point: “Of those who really tried, 50 percent stayed sober, and 25 percent drank but showed some improvement.”
To me there is something really fishy with these types of statements. Seems to me that we could reword it in a more accurate way: “Of those who stayed sober, they were the ones who really tried. All others put forth less than a 100 percent effort.”
We could even interview those who failed to stay sober and they would agree that they had not “really tried.”
The program itself is irrelevant. These same statements hold true regardless of which program we are discussing….be they 12 step based or otherwise. You see what I’m saying?
You are right in what you said Bill…of those who really tried, most stay sober. But this is not profound or useful, and it does not lead us to refine or improve a program that has a dismal success rate……
I’m a occaisional drinker 1-3/week and social only.
My wife on the other hand drinks whenever she likes and usually once started does not stop until falling asleep. I have done all the usual in my struggle against uncontrolled drinking. Enduring lies, fights, seperations etc…But when she is sober- God love her there is no one who can touch her vivacity and caring. Recently, the stuggle against drinking bouts during workdays where I come home to find her pretty lit up, has become an obsession for me in that I feel she will collapse our marriage. We have a wonderful set of life circumstances and no reason to stuggle about anything …except uncontrolled drinking.
What would you recommend as a course of action to stabilize and then correct the issue?
Desmond in Washington
Desmond My son was drinking and doing pot for 5 years. he is now clean and sober 8 months. he did inpt rehab 3 mos and then NA/AA for 2 mos. he decided he didn’t like it but he is seeing a couselor weekly. But what helped me find peace was going to AlAnon. I’ve been going since Sept. and it has helped me take the focus off him and restore balance in our family. I would urge you to try a few different meetings. Good Luck to you and your family Mary L.
@ Desmond – I would second what Mary suggested. You need to take care of YOU first and that means finding a support system.
our daughter age 43 is going thru a divorce from an alcholic and borderline personality disorder man. She has been abused, cheated on, lied to, swindled, alomst lost her home, bankrupt, but still thinks he can be rehibilitated…and would take him back in a year if he can prove he is well.
Is she as crazy as he is , or what. Where can we get her the help she needs to put this into prespective. He has been in jail for the past month. An ohio case..
Frustrate3d in Florida…Parents
I LOVE AA!
Where would I be without AA, NA, Recovery International, therapists, God, one halfway house, and one 28 day program which your and my family’s tax dollars paid for and the support of my family? BAA (Before AA ..and a public mental health clinic) I was on the verge of a nervous breakdown. After 2 yrs of going in and out of meetings (brief intervals of sober time), I finally was blessed, and God removed my compulsion to drink and do drugs. Been clean and sober over 24 yrs now… off cigarettes 17 yrs now w. help of nicorette and an antidepressant for 13 yrs.. if ur an addict, just keep trying; even if you relapse, get back into the meetings and keep trying and keep looking for Good Orderly Direction; Group of {recovering} Drunks – in other words a Higher Power who you can picture and feel is looking out for you, even when u cant. Write letters to God if u can’t pray. Sobriety will happen for you too if u just ask for help and follow the suggestions. PRAY for the GIFT of Desperation; desparate to get and stay sober!
One last thing; Naranon is a great help if your family member or friend is the addict… especially if they’re doing crack. That’s been my experience anyway. Alanon’s ok too but if it’s drugs theyre hooked on, try Naranon!
Thanks for sharing your experience there Rose. I agree that desperation is important. Glad I got desperate enough to take drastic action in my life….