What is the Success Rate of Recovery in AA?

What is the success rate of recovery in AA? That depends entirely on who you ask, and on exactly what you are measuring.

For example, there is documentation that proves “early AA” had a success rate of about 75 percent.

On the other hand, there are some people who claim that AA actually has a negative rate of recovery, and that people actually relapse in AA who might have recovered “spontaneously” through spontaneous remission of the disease.

Finally, there are a large number of estimates out there that put the success rate of recovery at around 3 to 5 percent.

But it is indeed a tricky thing to measure. For one, what exactly are we measuring? Complete abstinence for life? Alcoholics who successfully make it to one year sober? What exactly determines “success” when we are talking about success rates? This is the first half of the measuring problem.

The other half of the problem is that it is very difficult to obtain truly accurate results across a large sample. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is the anonymity that the program is based on. Add that to the shame and guilt associated with relapse, and you have the potential to seriously overestimate the success rate based on an anonymous survey.

What does AA themselves have to say? Here is a piece of an actual memo from the Alcoholics Anonymous GSO (General Services Office), based on an analysis of a survey period that ran for 12 years:

“After just one month in the Fellowship, 81% of the new members have already dropped out. After three months, 90% have left, and 95% have discontinued attendance inside one year.” (Kolenda, 2003, Golden Text Publishing Company).

Of course, this doesn’t really tell the whole story, as many people will leave after AA after being first introduced to it, and then later return once they have truly been beaten by their alcoholism. Most people who are a success story in AA tell of how they struggled–sometimes for years–going in and out of AA before they finally “got it.”

On both sides of this issue, people are very passionate

If you follow the 2 links at the beginning of this article, you’ll see that one is definitely pro-AA, and the other is vehemently anti-AA. One is claiming up to a 95% success rate, while the other is claiming AA is actually detrimental and has a negative success rate (lower than spontaneous remission). And you’ll also notice that both people are very passionate and firm believers in the stance they are taking. Why such a discrepancy here?

I believe the reason is that AA is effective for some, but it is clearly not for everyone. It is not a one-size-fits-all program. There are plenty of people who have achieved success and meaningful sobriety in AA. There are also those who have honestly gave it there best shot, only to eventually relapse and die. This is unfortunate, and it begs the question: “What are the alternatives?”

Unfortunately, there aren’t a whole lot. Yes, there are a few out there, but they are spread few and far between, and there are many disadvantages with all of them. While many of the alternatives to AA claim to have superior success rates, their method of measurement suffers from the same flaws as AA, and their is very little widespread support in these programs.

If you are on the fence about going to AA, here is what I suggest you do: Ignore the success rates you hear about and give it a chance. Do this knowing that AA is the single biggest support system of recovery in the world. The program may not be perfect, but it’s the best our planet has. The alternatives might talk a big game, but they don’t have meetings in every city in the world. AA does. You can find support just about anywhere. And it’s technically free to boot.

Here’s another suggestion: find someone in AA who has multiple years of sobriety and ask them what the success rate is for AA. They will likely tell you that they don’t care. It works for them.

Action items - What does all this mean for you?

1) Give AA a chance, because the meetings are everywhere and therefore the level of support is mind-boggling.

2) Don’t get stuck in thinking there is only one path to recovery - that is NOT TRUE. There are many paths.

3) Stay open. Regardless of what you choose, implement the spiritual principles into your life. Practice gratitude.

6 Comments so far

Excellant article with many good and valid points, Especially the thought that the paths are many. I went to AA for many years and supplemented this with a long term residential drug rehab program (www.stopaddiction.com). So the question would arise as to whether AA did or did not work for me. Perhaps by attending AA I did find enough workablity to get me butt to a rehab program when I realized I was in need of more intensive treatment. Just because I found lasting sobriety following my inpatient treatment is not reason to say AA had no effect.

Hi there Kayakotto

Interesting that both of our paths involved long term treatment and AA, but didn’t necessarily end up with us being entirely dependent on AA as our ultimate solution.

I’m definitely grateful for my experience in AA, and that it has led me to this point in my life. But some people confuse AA with being the path itself, when in fact it merely points to the path.

I still encourage newcomers to give it a chance, because there is so much support there. Anyway, thanks for sharing your comment Kayakotto!

The programs recovery rate is extremely higher than the fellowships recovery rate
Many are in-constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves so they seek
a label (sponsor) an outside menacing force outside the Big Book and get into personalities = another persons reality instead of being true to thy self.
A.A. does not ask this it begs you to be fearless from the very start many get fear imposed on them to get a sponsor and boy do they get it.

Thanks for your comment Joe.

Your statement about the “programs recovery rate is much higher than that of the fellowship,” that makes sense, and I would agree that such a statement points to the need to actually do some footwork and work on ourselves and take a deeper look inside (such as through the 12 steps).

But I would also caution people to look at that statement and see how it elevates “the program” to perfection. This is a logical error, in my opinion. You get into the problem of always thinking that the program is perfect, and if someone fails, then it is because they did not work the program perfectly. This is a very limiting way of thinking that can stunt people from growing, because it can limit them from seeking growth outside of the boundaries of the program.

Thanks so much for your comment, Joe, and good luck to you on your journey….

Thank you for including our reference to the documented 75% success rate in early A.A. among seemingly hopeless medically incurable real alcoholics who went to any length to establish their relationship and fellowship with God. A.A. has changed, and in many many ways. Statistics should be viewed in light of our history See Dick B., Real Twelve Step Fellowship History dickb.com/titles.shtml. The success rates today seem to be in the eye of the beholder. As one who has attended thousands of meetings, I can justifiably ask, where are those in flight. Most leave soon. Many go to Christian fellowships. Some tough it out. Others come and go and return. A hard crowd to measure. Contrast early A.A. where the original 40 kept rosters, knew each other by name and address, and kept track of sobriety dates, relapses, and the like. God Bless, Dick B.

Hi there Dick B.

I agree it is a very difficult thing to measure, and this is the source of much frustration in the treatment community.

I would encourage anyone reading to check out Dick B’s website, just click on his name in the comment above, it is very informative….lots of info there. Thanks for your comment, Dick!

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