What is the success rate of recovery in AA? That depends entirely on who you ask, and on exactly what you are measuring.
For example, there is documentation that proves “early AA” had a success rate of about 75 percent.
On the other hand, there are some people who claim that AA actually has a negative rate of recovery, and that people actually relapse in AA who might have recovered “spontaneously” through spontaneous remission of the disease.
Finally, there are a large number of estimates out there that put the success rate of recovery at around 3 to 5 percent.
But it is indeed a tricky thing to measure. For one, what exactly are we measuring? Complete abstinence for life? Alcoholics who successfully make it to one year sober? What exactly determines “success” when we are talking about success rates? This is the first half of the measuring problem.
The other half of the problem is that it is very difficult to obtain truly accurate results across a large sample. There are a number of reasons for this, not the least of which is the anonymity that the program is based on. Add that to the shame and guilt associated with relapse, and you have the potential to seriously overestimate the success rate based on an anonymous survey.
What does AA themselves have to say? Here is a piece of an actual memo from the Alcoholics Anonymous GSO (General Services Office), based on an analysis of a survey period that ran for 12 years:
“After just one month in the Fellowship, 81% of the new members have already dropped out. After three months, 90% have left, and 95% have discontinued attendance inside one year.” (Kolenda, 2003, Golden Text Publishing Company).
Of course, this doesn’t really tell the whole story, as many people will leave after AA after being first introduced to it, and then later return once they have truly been beaten by their alcoholism. Most people who are a success story in AA tell of how they struggled–sometimes for years–going in and out of AA before they finally “got it.”
On both sides of this issue, people are very passionate
If you follow the 2 links at the beginning of this article, you’ll see that one is definitely pro-AA, and the other is vehemently anti-AA. One is claiming up to a 95% success rate, while the other is claiming AA is actually detrimental and has a negative success rate (lower than spontaneous remission). And you’ll also notice that both people are very passionate and firm believers in the stance they are taking. Why such a discrepancy here?
I believe the reason is that AA is effective for some, but it is clearly not for everyone. It is not a one-size-fits-all program. There are plenty of people who have achieved success and meaningful sobriety in AA. There are also those who have honestly gave it there best shot, only to eventually relapse and die. This is unfortunate, and it begs the question: “What are the alternatives?”
Unfortunately, there aren’t a whole lot. Yes, there are a few out there, but they are spread few and far between, and there are many disadvantages with all of them. While many of the alternatives to AA claim to have superior success rates, their method of measurement suffers from the same flaws as AA, and their is very little widespread support in these programs.
If you are on the fence about going to AA, here is what I suggest you do: Ignore the success rates you hear about and give it a chance. Do this knowing that AA is the single biggest support system of recovery in the world. The program may not be perfect, but it’s the best our planet has. The alternatives might talk a big game, but they don’t have meetings in every city in the world. AA does. You can find support just about anywhere. And it’s technically free to boot.
Here’s another suggestion: find someone in AA who has multiple years of sobriety and ask them what the success rate is for AA. They will likely tell you that they don’t care. It works for them.
Action items – What does all this mean for you?
1) Give AA a chance, because the meetings are everywhere and therefore the level of support is mind-boggling.
2) Don’t get stuck in thinking there is only one path to recovery – that is NOT TRUE. There are many paths.
3) Stay open. Regardless of what you choose, implement the spiritual principles into your life. Practice gratitude.
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I think it is important to look at the early success rate of A.A. I believe that somewhere along the line the message has be drastically watered down. With people I have worked with 100% have recovered who have followed the program of alcoholics anonymous as directly outlined in the big book. The rate to could just be also in the introduction of drugs and just the nature of the illness.
@ Jason – I partially agree…but at the same time, we can look at any success story in AA and say “see? They are applying the AA program in their life, just like they should be!” And at the same time we can look at the failures and say “They are not working the AA program.”
This is useless, as this logic also works with “stand-on-your-head-all-day” programs of recovery. Early AA rates typically discount the failures and eliminate them from the equation, from what I have seen. This is further backed up by the language used when AA said “Of those who really tried, about half stayed sober….” etc. etc. See how they qualify that there? You can’t do that in statistics (at least not in valid, published studies you can’t).
If you are thinking about going to AA because you think you may have a drinking or a drugging problem why dont you just go? See what its like for your self. If someone told you what sex was like would just say oh I have figured out I dont think I need to try it. If you think you may have a drinking problem dont let other people tell you about AA. Its just like anything else in this world things mean different things to different people. I like chicken my girlfriend is a vegetarian if you asked me about cooked chicken you’d get a way different answer than if you asked her. On a side note remember people possible newcomers could be reading this and if you dont have anything good to say maybe you should stay anonymous at the level of press radio film and INTERNET.
Robert, I respect your opinion and I agree that anyone who is curious should give 12 step programs a try.
However, your closing statement there is way out of line. Why should people outside of AA have any interest in operating under AA traditions? That is an unreasonable request. I have heard similar arguments where people say “if you steer people away from AA you are killing newcomers, oh no!” This is utter crap. Look at the success (and death) rates in AA, and you will see that other treatment methods produce statistically similar success rates. That said, AA may indeed help people. It is just not the default cure that some people think it is.
The market leader is not always right.
I am not anti-12 step, but merely pro-recovery. Recovery does not necessarily equal AA. There are other paths…..
I am fortunate to be sober for 4yrs. and 10 mths..a miracle for me..I realize it is a process (To change).So, One day at a time I try to do these. I know longer worry or care about A.A. statistics…al I know is..It has worked for me..and at one time I couldnt stop drinking for more than an hour at a time..God could and would if He were sought..God has done for me, what I couldnt do for myself.
The best model for success rates can be found in the little known details as to how the first three AAs–believers in God and Christians all–finally turned to God for help, were cured, said so, and never drank again.
If you want to be clean you will. AA and NA are not meant to do it for you they are support groups that will help you to maintain your own power from within and desire to change. If you are counting on them to change your life you are going to fail because only YOU can change your life. However if you want a million people to love you and support you while you change your life AA and NA will give you that when you want to relapse you can call 500 people and they can help you out of it. There numbers are large there are meetings daily sometimes even 2-3 times a day. And the people there know what you are going through and want to support you as you change. it is about honesty to your self .
there are many ways to recover. i have chosen aa because it works for me. by all means, do whatever you have to in order to achieve your goals in recovery. if aa is not your way that’s fine by me, it ’s not my life, it’s yours. the true principles of the program are about each one of us finding our own path in recovery. it is not a matter of aa being the only way and unfortunately some people do present it in this manner. i simply encourage people to be open-minded and willing to explore the options available. help is available and aa has been wonderful for me.
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