A reader writes in and asks:
“Is there a time limit that an addict passes in recovery, after which they are not likely to relapse?”
Good question!
Short answer: no.
Long answer: No, there is no such thing as “being clean and sober long enough to insure future sobriety.” In fact, my sponsor in recovery once pointed out to me that the rate of relapse remains the same across the board, regardless of how long you’ve been clean. He said that they did a study that showed that about 5 percent would make it to 5 years clean and sober, then out of all those people who make it to 5 years sobriety, only 5 percent of those people would make it to ten years. And so on, in five year increments.
I told him I disagreed with this idea, and figured that once you made it to a certain point (like 5 years sober, or 10 years sober) that you were sort of “good to go” as far as not relapsing was concerned. He told me “Yep, that is what everyone believes. It is natural to think that way. But the data proves otherwise.”
Now I don’t know for sure how accurate that study was, but I now know from experience that the idea behind it is basically a valid one: people with many years of sobriety do end up relapsing. I am in a unique position in that I work in a treatment center, so I occasionally will see examples where this has happened. I have seen several people with 5, 10, and 15 years of sobriety come back into detox because they have suddenly relapsed.
It is difficult to see how these numbers work because so few people make it to 10 or 15 years of sobriety. So it is extremely rare to see someone with that kind of clean time relapse, simply because there are so few people with that kind of clean time (compared to the larger pool of all recovering addicts and alcoholics).
In other words, think about how many people that are in recovery who are working on their first 30 days of sobriety. There are far, far more of those newcomers than there are people with, say, 10 years sober. So naturally, we are going to see far more of the newcomers relapse then from a group of those who have many years sober.
You can also get a rough idea regarding this question if you look at the attrition rate for Alcoholics Anonymous attendance. Now this is not the same thing as sobriety, as some who keep coming to AA will relapse, and some who leave AA will in fact stay sober, but it still gives a rough idea. Alcoholics Anonymous did a survey and explained that:
* About one third of their members leave the program after one month.
* Of those remaining, half of them leave by the 90 day mark.
* Of those still remaining, another half leave by the 1 year mark.
* After 1 year, attrition slows down (to probably around 5% or so, as my sponsor had indicated with his example).
So, if you look at 100 people who are brand new starting out in AA, about 17 of them will be left at the one year mark. This is not the exact same thing as the percentage who will remain sober, but it gives us a rough estimate. In fact, the percentage who stay sober that long will be a bit less than the percentage that remain in AA.
Unfortunately, there are no guarantees with recovery. However, I would suggest that to you that certain characteristics can help indicate a strong recovery. I would look for the following patterns in order to feel more confident about someone’s stability in recovery:
1) They work with others in recovery on a regular basis.
2) They have achieved a balanced lifestyle in their recovery.
3) Always in learning mode, never given to arrogance.
4) Driven to personal growth and deliberately working on self.
But even with these criteria you cannot predict sobriety 100 percent.
I hope this analysis has not been too dismal for anyone, because people can and do stay sober for long periods of time. It is not all doom and gloom! People can and do recover every day.
Recommended Reading
- Overcoming Addiction
- 5 Ways to Supercharge Your Recovery, Avoid Relapse, and Dominate Your Addiction Over the Holiday Season
- 10 Ways to Embrace Creative Recovery and Take Your Sobriety to the Next Level
- Warning: Taking Massive Action in Drug Addiction Recovery Could Result in Creating an Awesome Life that You are Genuinely Grateful For
- Holistic Addiction Treatment Center
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
Thank you! Relapse is a very real monster waiting. The clearer we see, the better our chances of steering clear of its takedown. Thanks for reminding me that action needs to be included with knowledge. I love your site.
Sounds pretty doom & gloom to me!
@ Fawn – thanks for your comment…I appreciate it!
@ Ralphieta – I know, I was afraid that it came off a bit too much that was, as being all doom and gloom. It is really not that bad, many people are enjoying good clean time in sobriety! But the odds are pretty steep and it is important to be realistic. Always keep hope and realize that it takes time for people to become ready to change their life. I personally went to rehab 3 times before I finally surrendered fully to my disease…..
It has happened to me. After nearly 3 years of recovery I relapsed and I’m fully addicted and physically dependant on heroin again. I don’t know what to do, I’m so ashamed of myself. None of my friends or family knows that I am using. My fiancé does not even know and she is in recovery too. I tried to quit a week ago, I made it 3 days but on the 4th day I was overwhelmed by anxiety and panic attacks. The only way I could relieve the panic attack was by using. I want help but I don’t know where to turn. I work at a small company and they don’t offer any health insurance benefits. Without any insurance I cant even get into detox or treatment. I’m so afraid to get honest with family friends because they will want me to stop immediately and get help, but where will I be able to get the help. I know the sooner I get honest the better but I can’t bring myself to do it. I finally got sober when I was 29 and I was so happy that when I turned 30 I was in recovery and I believed I would never go back to using. In two weeks I’ll be turning 32 years old and in the throws of addiction. I truly want to recover again and I want the process to begin as soon as possible. But with the herion I can’t just stop it’s not that simple no matter how strong my desire. I live in Minneapolis mn with my fiancé in our first home we bought last year. We have worked so hard In recovery to overcome challenges resulting from our past. For example I have a criminal record several pages long and struggle to find work. After a year of recovery my current employer took a chance on me and offered me a great job and a respectable salary. I fear now that I have relapsed it will cost me my job and eventually even lose my house and fiancé.
Any suggestions?
That is a tough situation Kareem but I think you nailed it when you said you need to take action quickly. If no one is even suspecting your problem yet then now is the time to act. If you delay then it will only cost you credibility later on. This is true for your personal contacts as well as with your work. You need to take action now. If you let it go too long then it will snowball and get worse and more will be at stake. I don’t know how or if you can afford treatment but I think you should get honest with someone and try to ask for help. If you cannot stop on your own then you need to ask for help.
It would be nice to run damage control and slide out of this situation without anyone ever knowing but that is probably no longer possible. You could fake the flu maybe and ride it out cold turkey, but that is not very honest and you would be living a lie with your fiance.
At any rate I hope you can find a way to get some help and get your life back on track. Starting over might not be end of the world, it sounds like you still have your health intact. Be grateful for that and do what you need to do to get clean again. Action, action, action. Good luck.