How Many Alcoholics Relapse in their First Year?
A reader writes in and asks: “How many alcoholics relapse in their first year?”
Good question. There is a slight problem with the question though and I will get to that in a minute. I will start out by saying that most basic estimates put this figure at around 95 percent. So they would say that about 5 percent of alcoholics stay sober for the first year. Some say more like 3 percent stay sober and others would say more like 10 percent stay sober. But the 5 percent figure is the one that I see used the most as a general estimate. Keep in mind that it is somewhat challenging to get reliable and honest data regarding this from a large pool of alcoholics.
Now the problem that I mention is in the question itself: how many alcoholics will relapse? Well, what group of alcoholics are we actually looking at here? Are we looking at all of the alcoholics who went to an alcohol treatment center in order to try and get sober? Are we including alcoholics who try to quit drinking on their own? Do we add in those who did not go to a rehab center but started attending AA meetings? Are we just looking at people who attend AA and how many of those people relapse in their first year?
photo credit: Fancy Mandi
One interesting statistic to consider comes from Alcoholics Anonymous themselves and their census data that they publish. Apparently there is about an 80 percent drop out rate for the AA program in the first year. Specifically, AA World Services states that almost 80 percent of all alcoholics who attend their first AA meeting will leave the AA program within the first year and never return. This is based on a huge amount of data spanning several decades that comes right AA meetings. Now this does not necessarily mean that 80 percent will relapse in the first year, or even that those 80 percent who left AA for good will relapse. It just means that the AA program has a drop out rate of almost 80 percent among newcomers. Food for thought at any rate, and probably a good indicator that anyone who sticks with the program for over a year straight has a better chance at sobriety.
The interesting statistic, and maybe the one that really matters, is how many alcoholics relapse in their first year who are really serious about getting sober? Some people argue that none of them relapse because they have truly surrendered and have made the decision to change their life for real this time. But many have claimed that level of surrender and said that they had truly hit bottom and yet they failed to achieve sobriety.
It is not really fair to discount those people who relapse and just say that they did not really want recovery, however. We have to measure all of those people who sought help for their alcohol problem, and how many actually stayed sober during the first year. It is easy to manipulate the statistics if you just discard people who do not fit into your world view.
Recommended Reading
- Overcoming Addiction
- Why Does an Alcoholic or Drug Addict Keep Relapsing?
- What Percentage of Addicts and Alcoholics Relapse?
- Holistic Addiction Treatment Center
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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }
I am going to be assisting a friend who is holding a BB/12 Step workshop based on the model in the book titled, “Back To Basics”. I mention this because the reason we are doing this is because the rate of recovery is very low and there are differences in the way people are brought through steps today and in the quality of meetings. By the grace of God, I am sober for 18 months. I have a sponsor, I worked my steps and today I live them. I am a sponsor. I attend my AA meetings almost daily – still.
The rate of recovery is very low in comparison to what it used to be in the ‘early days’. In those days the rate of recovery through AAs ’12 step spiritual program of recovery’ was extremely high. Of course, back then the people who were seeking help with thier drink problem were mostly ‘low bottom cases’. I mention this because in reading your article, I feel compelled to share about what a bottom is and how low is a low bottom? A bottom is a personal choice, and low is ONLY as low as any one person is willing to go.
I was in recovery in AA for 3 years and I relapsed. When I began to attend meetings the first time around I truly believed I had ‘hit my bottom’. And indeed, things were very bad. Evidently I had CHOSEN to dig a deeper hole because after 3 years, I went back out for 4 years and I almost died. I had been in jail a couple of times, instituions, (mental hosp, out patient rehab, detox, in patient rehab, etc…) I could NOT stop and I could not NOT stop. There was no way out so I tried to kill myself. This landed me in another inpatient rehab where I had to really look at my life and the lives of those I affected. This time, I DECIDED that I had really hit bottom. I drank 24/7 for the last 2 years of those 4 years and I did things that completely shredded my moral fiber. I was looking for blood on my bumper every day because I could never remember where I had been, what I had done, how I got my vehical home, etc… I had to concede that I was utterly hopeless. That was perfectly evident and in a clear state of mind for a long period of time while in rehab (I could not drink the pain and remorse from yesterday away – so I was forced to face facts and not run to the store for a bottle in order to keep lying to myself)
I left treatment after 41 days and walked into an AA meeting where I recieved help for my ‘hopeless state of mind and body’.
So, yes I am sober for 18 months by the grace of God. I hit bottom. But it is very important to stress that my bottom CAN DEFINATELY go lower. There are alot of ‘yets’ for me if I drink again. And if I dont drink AND I FAIL to do daily maintanence of my spiritual condition I WILL be miserable and I will soon be drunk. So, I maintain sobriety by ‘working the program’.
The people who claim to have hit thier bottom and yet ‘cant stop’ have simply failed to do the most important thing that is essential to recovery. They are not being honest. ANYONE and EVERYONE can stop IF they are ‘willing to go to any length’ and if they are HONEST about thier condition and about ‘who they are’. It is an individual choice ‘what ones bottom is’. I know MANY ‘high bottom’ cases who know what the future holds if they dont stay sober and they stop, work a program and stay healthy; physically, mentally and spiritually.
There is a solution but many people are unable to be honest enough to really, really want it. It is a beautiful life. And remember that anyone who ‘hasn’t reached their bottom’ simply has CHOSEN NOT to admit complete defeat. It is about ‘honesty’ NOT about ‘bottoms’.