Alcohol relapse statistics can be misleading and confusing, especially since such a wild range of information gets thrown around out there. In some cases, you will hear some statistic quoted that paints an extremely dismal picture of constant relapse, but later you might here a statistic that seems to offer hope.
In many cases, these statistics are in direct conflict, and both of them can not be right. So who do we believe?
Focus on statistics you can use, ignore the rest
One of the primary statistics you should be concerned about has to do with the outrageous cost of relapsing into full blown alcoholism. The economics of addiction pose staggering costs, with the ultimate price being your life.
You might hear some stats that are encouraging, while others are rather dismal. My advice is to take what works for you and run with it. This is not about becoming self-delusional, it’s about focusing on the positive and using the positive statistics that you hear to back up your worldview.
In other words, if you are experiencing an awesome new life in recovery, then don’t focus on the stats that say only a certain percentage will make it to 5 years clean. Ignore the naysayers and the doomsday projectionists, because that stuff doesn’t apply to you.
Remember that recovery data is very difficult to obtain in a reliable fashion and must always be taken with a grain of salt. It’s hard to get good data in this field….period.
A ray of hope: government studies = larger sample sizes
A major government study done in 2002 with over 4,000 recovering alcoholics showed that 18.2% were still sober after a year.
This is very encouraging, actually. That’s about 1 out of every 5 alcoholics. You hear a number of statistics quoted that are often much worse than this – such as success rates in AA that typically run around 3 to 10 percent. In addition, the fact that this is a large government study with a fairly large sample size does a lot to validate the data. Such numbers are bound to be more accurate than those you hear that are drawn from AA recovery groups, which are difficult data to obtain due to the anonymity issues involved.
There is a tendency to paint a gloom-and-doom picture of horrible relapse statistics
In my experience, there is a tendency in AA and NA meetings to really focus on the horrible odds that are stacked against us, how only a small percentage of alcoholics will find long term sobriety, and so on. People at the tables love to throw these stats around and make it sound all gloom-and-doom. What they are trying to do is convey the urgency and dedication needed to stay sober with the program. But it comes off as being very negative, and the threat of high relapse rates doesn’t seem to make much different in motivating alcoholics to “step up” their recovery programs.
So I say again: ignore the naysayers and the doomsday crowd, and simply work the best recovery program that you can.
I’ll leave you with one of my favorite alcohol statistics: Quitting drinking will net you over a million dollars. How’s that for an incentive?
Recommended Reading
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{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW HOW MANY ,MAKE IT TEN YEARS IN AA
Hi Terry
That sounds like a simple question but in fact it is complicated.
There is a big issue in recent years with the court system in the U.S. that pushes alcoholics and addicts into the 12 step fellowships. Many of these people do not want to be there but it has become part of their sentence. So just this fact alone can really skew the results quite a bit. Should they really be counted as failures since they did not make it to 10 years sober?
AA world services publishes a 10 year census called their Triennial survey. In their most recent census they stated that something like 80 percent of the people who attended their first AA meeting will never return for a second meeting. Ever.
That is just crazy, right off the top you have AA World Services stating that they have an 80 percent failure rate for everyone who walks through the door.
But those in AA would argue that most of those people did not “really want it.” So should they really be counted in success statistics?
Given all of this type of data, it seems that very, very few make it to 10 years in AA. Those that truly want sobriety still have a good chance of doing so (in my opinion) but how many really want it that bad?
I have been in AA 30 years. My husband and I got sober at the same time. We both attend AA, Al-Anon, and Celebrate Recovery; a newer support group that uses the 12-steps and 8 Bible principles. I have seen many miracles in AA. If you work the steps the way they are meant to be worked you will have a life change. Too many people don’t want to give up their will for God’s will. Oldhas to become new and you only make that complete change by surrender of your will. I would not be here today if not for the fellowship of AA. Praise God for those meetings.
The doom and gloom is just an excuse to use and justify your relapse…many make it without relapse because they are not looking for an easier softer way they are working the program. You won’t find the miracle if you are not willing to stay long enough to learn. Only a fool avoids being taught.
Hi Marie
Thanks for you perspective. Sounds like you use more than one tool to recover (including Al-Anon and Celebrate Recovery). That is great! Many people get stuck in AA and think it is the ultimate solution, when in fact they could be finding other resources that are helpful as well……
Thank you for the information shared here. I work with substance abusers in a group recovery home and utilized some of the information from this site. I explained how statistics can show us anything we want to believe so all that really matters is what do you belief. Take what you need and leave the rest. They really liked the millions dollars in 16 years idea. Like you say, develop the best program you can and follow it. I have been involved with the CR program at my church and it can be a great addition to anyones program especially those, like myself, that needed more guidance with the spiritual aspect of recovery.
Hi Ian
Thanks for your support, and your comment. I agree that statistics can be made to prove almost anything, so you have to put a positive spin on things. Thanks!
To all who may read this:The best way to avoid a relapse is to remember all the horrible things that happened to you when you were drunk.I am not currently an alcoholic,But there are Plenty of them in my family.So if you want to stay sober,remember all the ugly things that happened when you were drunk.
I am sober four and a half years. My WORKING the AA program has been the main reason for this life saving and life changing success. AA provides a program, a road map, to living a sober life. We work the program. The success rate for people in AA who work the program appears to be pretty high. Yes there are relapses, slips and setbacks. But AA is always there to help anyone who wants a sober life to try again. The only requirement for membership is a desire to stop drinking. Stop worrying about statistics, and start working the steps. AA is for people who want it.
I’ve been sober six and a half years and attend AA meetings regularly. For me, I need to LIVE the steps rather than work them. I got sober and have, thanks to the grace of God, stayed sober. I agree that statistics can be shown to prove anything (or nothing) – in actuality, there is no definitive research on recovery vs relapse rates.